Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 5

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Tromso

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'TromsoA. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (assist: J. Hjerto-Dahl)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Tromso
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
451	Passes	463
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.46 · Tromso 1.58. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 · Tromso 12; on target 2 and 6.

Unavailable players

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Camil Mmaeeout · Groin Injury
F. Carstensenout · injury
M. Opokuout · Ankle Injury
P. Reinhardsenout · Ankle Injury

Tromso

J. Grundtout · Foot Injury
V. Ekblomout · Groin Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Svein Tore Sinnes, Norway→

3.38

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.58 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 994 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win34.1%

Draw26.1%

Tromso to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time40.4%

Tromso lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 994 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 14
Tromso: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5Actual: 10
Tromso: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.46

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.58

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.6%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.