Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 5

Kristiansund BK–Fredrikstad

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Kristiansund BKP. Meliga
59'Kristiansund BKLeander Alvheim

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Fredrikstad
17	Shots	17
8	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
380	Passes	478
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.43 · Fredrikstad 1.41. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Kristiansund BK 17 · Fredrikstad 17; on target 8 and 5.
Fredrikstad kept the ball more (56%).

Unavailable players

Kristiansund BK

D. Tufekcicout · Thigh Injury
H. Opsahlout · Knee Injury
J. Isaksenout · Thigh Injury
N. Ødegårdout · Ankle Injury

Fredrikstad

F. Holmeout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Mischa Kellerhals, Norway→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Kristiansund BK to win”. Second comes “Fredrikstad to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Kristiansund BK, 1.41 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 994 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win36.7%

Draw27.1%

Fredrikstad to win36.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time40.8%

Fredrikstad lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Fredrikstad ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 994 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 11
Fredrikstad: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 4
Fredrikstad: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.43

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.41

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.