Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 5

Viking–Brann

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'VikingK. Haugen (assist: H. Falchener)
37'BrannN. Holm (assist: F. Myhre)
42'VikingH. Heggheim (assist: Z. Tripic)
58'BrannJ. Soltvedt (assist: K. Eriksen)
90'VikingS. Bjorshol (assist: Z. Tripic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viking		Brann
19	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
468	Passes	381
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viking 2.10 · Brann 1.14. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Viking 19 · Brann 8; on target 7 and 4.
Viking kept the ball more (56%).

Unavailable players

Viking

A. Ostboout · Leg Injury
E. Austboout · Groin Injury
M. Rosethout · Knee Injury
V. Berishaout · Leg Injury
V. Vevatneout · injury

Brann

E. Gudmundssonout · Knee Injury
J. Torsvikout · Groin Injury
N. Boakyeout · Knee Injury
N. Castroout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Magnussonout · Knee Injury
S. Opsahlout · Foot Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.5%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Viking, 1.14 for Brann.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (1X — Viking win or draw).
These values were computed from 992 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viking to win59.5%

Draw22.0%

Brann to win18.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Viking win or draw81.5%

12 — any result other than a draw78.0%

X2 — draw or Brann win40.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Viking lead at half-time52.9%

Level at half-time33.2%

Brann lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Viking ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Brann ahead47.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 992 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viking: at least 12Actual: 12
Brann: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Viking: at least 5Actual: 6
Brann: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viking score2.10

Attack: Viking score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brann score1.14

Attack: Brann score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.5%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 992 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.