Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 1

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Bodo/Glimt

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 15 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Christiansen (assist: S. Sørli)
64'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Bodo/Glimt
15	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
28%	Possession	72%
280	Passes	725
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 · Bodo/Glimt 2.14. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 15 · Bodo/Glimt 16; on target 7 and 4.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (72%).

Unavailable players

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Camil Mmaeeout · Groin Injury
F. Carstensenout · injury
J. Bergetout · injury
M. Opokuout · Ankle Injury
P. Reinhardsenout · Ankle Injury

Bodo/Glimt

M. Riisnaesout · illness
O. Brynhildsenout · Knee Injury
U. Saltnesout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2.14 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (X2 — draw or Bodo/Glimt win).
These values were computed from 988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win22.0%

Draw22.2%

Bodo/Glimt to win55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw44.2%

12 — any result other than a draw77.8%

X2 — draw or Bodo/Glimt win78.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time22.5%

Level at half-time35.9%

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time41.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level58.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Bodo/Glimt ahead77.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 988 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 7
Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 3Actual: 4
Bodo/Glimt: at least 6Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.33

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.14

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.4%1–19.9%1–37.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 988 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 122 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.