Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 4

Fredrikstad–Valerenga

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'ValerengaM. Grundetjern (assist: M. Westergaard)
79'FredrikstadD. Eid (assist: J. Nunez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fredrikstad		Valerenga
17	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
462	Passes	448
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fredrikstad 1.71 · Valerenga 1.23. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fredrikstad 17 · Valerenga 17; on target 3 and 5.

Unavailable players

Fredrikstad

F. Holmeout · injury
J. Nysveenout · injury

Valerenga

M. Ofkirout · Knee Injury
S. Jarlout · red-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Sivert Amland, Norway→

2.23

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Fredrikstad to win”. Second comes “Valerenga to win” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Fredrikstad, 1.23 for Valerenga.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 984 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fredrikstad to win48.1%

Draw25.7%

Valerenga to win26.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fredrikstad lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time40.3%

Valerenga lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Fredrikstad ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Valerenga ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 984 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fredrikstad: at least 10Actual: 13
Valerenga: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Fredrikstad: at least 5Actual: 7
Valerenga: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.71

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valerenga score1.23

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.5%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.