Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 4

Molde–Ham-Kam

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aker Stadion, Molde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'MoldeE. Breivik
14'MoldeJ. Abdulai (assist: M. Kikkenborg)
37'MoldeF. Sjolstad (own goal)
48'MoldeE. Breivik
58'Ham-KamH. Udahl (assist: V. Jonsson)
78'MoldeS. Kabini · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Molde		Ham-Kam
14	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
559	Passes	375
470	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Molde 2.16 · Ham-Kam 1.02. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Molde 14 · Ham-Kam 8; on target 6 and 3.
Molde kept the ball more (59%).

Unavailable players

Molde

C. Oyvannout · injury
D. Dagaout · injury
F. Dahlout · Knee Injury
I. Amundsenout · injury
M. Møller Dæhliout · Muscle Injury
O. Spiten-Nysæterout · injury

Ham-Kam

L. Maresout · Groin Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Marius Lien, Norway→

3.21

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.9%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Molde, 1.02 for Ham-Kam.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Molde win or draw).
These values were computed from 984 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Molde to win63.9%

Draw20.9%

Ham-Kam to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Molde lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time37.9%

Ham-Kam lead at half-time26.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Molde ahead or level73.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Ham-Kam ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 984 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Molde score2.16

Attack: Molde score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.02

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.2%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.