Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 1

Ham-Kam–Viking

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'Ham-KamH. Udahl
38'Ham-KamL. Mettler
45'VikingG. Stensness (assist: Z. Tripic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Viking
11	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	11
2	Offsides	4
39%	Possession	61%
333	Passes	513
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.21 · Viking 1.91. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ham-Kam 11 · Viking 18; on target 4 and 4.
Viking kept the ball more (61%).

Unavailable players

Ham-Kam

E. Amundsen-Dayout · suspended
N. Alexanderssonout · injury
O. Ryeout · injury

Viking

E. Austboout · Groin Injury
M. Rosethout · Knee Injury
P. Christiansenout · Leg Injury
V. Berishaout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Marius Grotta, Norway→

3.50

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Ham-Kam, 1.91 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (X2 — draw or Viking win).
These values were computed from 959 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win22.7%

Draw24.0%

Viking to win53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Ham-Kam lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time38.5%

Viking lead at half-time27.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level72.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Viking ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 959 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 11Actual: 14
Viking: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 4Actual: 6
Viking: at least 6Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.21

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.91

Attack: Viking score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–210.8%0–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.