Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 5

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Hapoel Petah Tikva

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 18 September 2026 at 12:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Hapoel Tel AvivE. Boateng (assist: M. Coco)
17'Hapoel Tel AvivChico (assist: Yannick Leliendal)
42'Hapoel Petah TikvaK. Kimvuidi · red card
55'Hapoel Tel AvivO. Israelov (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Hapoel Petah Tikva
20	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	1
4	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
483	Passes	376
437	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.76 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0.80. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 20 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 5; on target 4 and 0.
Hapoel Tel Aviv kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.4%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 0.80 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 875 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win60.4%

Draw24.4%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time32.4%

Level at half-time46.4%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead67.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 874 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 15
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 4Actual: 8
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.76

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score0.80

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%1–112.4%2–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.