Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 4

Hapoel Haifa–Bnei Sakhnin

3–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Hapoel HaifaY. Gonen (assist: A. Mendy)
23'Hapoel HaifaC Keita (assist: L. Rotman)
25'Bnei SakhninB. Khuri (assist: A. Sefer)
29'Hapoel HaifaL. Rotman (assist: A. Turgeman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Haifa		Bnei Sakhnin
14	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
378	Passes	420
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Haifa 1.33 · Bnei Sakhnin 0.95. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Hapoel Haifa 14 · Bnei Sakhnin 10; on target 5 and 6.
Bnei Sakhnin kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “Hapoel Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Hapoel Haifa, 0.95 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Haifa to win44.8%

Draw29.8%

Bnei Sakhnin to win25.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time44.4%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 868 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Haifa: at least 11Actual: 15
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Hapoel Haifa: at least 4Actual: 3
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.33

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score0.95

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.0%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.