Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 4

Beitar Jerusalem–Maccabi Petah Tikva

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Beitar JerusalemS. Weissman (assist: T. Yosefi)
28'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili (assist: T. Yosefi)
87'Beitar JerusalemJ. Kalu (assist: Y. Shua)
89'Maccabi Petah TikvaYoav Koren (assist: José Cortés)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Maccabi Petah Tikva
27	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
18	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
561	Passes	277
481	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 2.13 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.12. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 27 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 11; on target 6 and 5.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.7%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.12 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (1X — Beitar Jerusalem win or draw).
These values were computed from 874 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win60.7%

Draw21.7%

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win17.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time47.5%

Level at half-time38.1%

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead52.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 873 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 10Actual: 11
Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4Actual: 10
Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score2.13

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.12

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.4%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.