Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 4

Maccabi Tel Aviv–Hapoel Tel Aviv

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz
33'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel (assist: E. Boateng)
36'Maccabi Tel AvivO. Davida (assist: E. Sokler)
45+6'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel · red card
88'Maccabi Tel AvivH. Layous (assist: E. Madmon)
90+5'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Madmon

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		Hapoel Tel Aviv
19	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
507	Passes	318
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.47 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.31. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 19 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 11; on target 9 and 4.
Maccabi Tel Aviv kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.31 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 872 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win40.2%

Draw27.3%

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win32.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time41.4%

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time16.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead or level83.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 871 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 14
Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 4Actual: 5
Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.47

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.47 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.31

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.6%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.