Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 3

Maccabi Netanya–Hapoel Haifa

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Hapoel HaifaA. Turgeman (assist: L. Rotman)
52'Maccabi NetanyaMatheus Davó (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Netanya		Hapoel Haifa
14	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
491	Passes	401
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.80 · Hapoel Haifa 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Maccabi Netanya 14 · Hapoel Haifa 18; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.19 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw).
These values were computed from 864 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win51.4%

Draw24.9%

Hapoel Haifa to win23.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time40.4%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 863 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 13Actual: 16
Hapoel Haifa: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 4Actual: 8
Hapoel Haifa: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.80

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.19

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.7%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.