Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 3

Maccabi Petah Tikva–Ironi Tiberias

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Ironi TiberiasN. Gbamble (assist: D. Joulani)
27'Ironi TiberiasB. Cohen · red card
61'Maccabi Petah TikvaJosé Cortés
72'Ironi TiberiasA. Cohen (assist: Chriso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Petah Tikva		Ironi Tiberias
32	Shots	12
10	Shots on target	3
25	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
512	Passes	246
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.70 · Ironi Tiberias 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Maccabi Petah Tikva 32 · Ironi Tiberias 12; on target 10 and 3.
Maccabi Petah Tikva kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 1.17 for Ironi Tiberias.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva win or draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win49.6%

Draw25.8%

Ironi Tiberias to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time52.0%

Level at half-time36.5%

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or Ironi Tiberias ahead48.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 860 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 13Actual: 5
Ironi Tiberias: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 3Actual: 11
Ironi Tiberias: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.70

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.17

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.6%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.