Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 3

Bnei Sakhnin–Beitar Jerusalem

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doha Stadium, Sakhnin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Beitar JerusalemE. Ansah (assist: T. Yosefi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bnei Sakhnin		Beitar Jerusalem
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	4
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
38%	Possession	62%
330	Passes	507
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 0.90 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.68. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bnei Sakhnin 13 · Beitar Jerusalem 13; on target 4 and 7.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.68 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win).
These values were computed from 866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win18.5%

Draw25.7%

Beitar Jerusalem to win55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time42.9%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time36.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level63.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12Actual: 16
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 2
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score0.90

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.68

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%0–112.0%0–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.