Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 3

Hapoel Beer Sheva–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Maccabi Tel AvivH. Varela
35'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Sokler (penalty)
44'Hapoel Beer ShevaE. Peretz · red card
45+3'Hapoel Beer ShevaAmir Chaim Ganah (assist: Niv Yehoshua)
67'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Sokler (assist: H. Varela)
79'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Beer Sheva		Maccabi Tel Aviv
7	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	14
6	Shots inside the box	16
9	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
386	Passes	518
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.96 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.31. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Hapoel Beer Sheva 7 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 22; on target 2 and 14.
Maccabi Tel Aviv kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1.31 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 867 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win52.4%

Draw23.6%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win24.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time39.8%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 866 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 13Actual: 15
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 4Actual: 4
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.96

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.31

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–110.6%2–07.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.