Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 2

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Ironi Tiberias

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Sagna (assist: S. David)
72'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaR. Abdullazada

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.74 · Ironi Tiberias 1.38. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “Ironi Tiberias to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.38 for Ironi Tiberias.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win45.5%

Draw25.3%

Ironi Tiberias to win29.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona win or draw70.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Ironi Tiberias win54.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time38.8%

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Ironi Tiberias ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 851 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13
Ironi Tiberias: at least 13

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3
Ironi Tiberias: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.74

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.38

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.2%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.