Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 2

Beitar Jerusalem–Maccabi Netanya

1–4

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Beitar JerusalemD. Worko (assist: O. Atzili)
52'Maccabi NetanyaMatheus Davó (assist: Dolev Haziza)
66'Maccabi NetanyaMatheus Davó (assist: O. Bilu)
71'Maccabi NetanyaMatheus Davó (assist: O. Bilu)
76'Maccabi NetanyaM. Levi (assist: O. Bilu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Maccabi Netanya
13	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
73%	Possession	27%
618	Passes	228
543	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 2.35 · Maccabi Netanya 0.96. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 13 · Maccabi Netanya 12; on target 3 and 8.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.9%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Beitar Jerusalem, 0.96 for Maccabi Netanya.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Beitar Jerusalem win or draw).
These values were computed from 856 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win68.9%

Draw18.8%

Maccabi Netanya to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	24

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time35.4%

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or Maccabi Netanya ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 855 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 12Actual: 8
Maccabi Netanya: at least 13Actual: 24

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4Actual: 1
Maccabi Netanya: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score2.35

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.35 goals.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score0.96

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–010.2%1–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.