Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 1

Maccabi Netanya–Bnei Sakhnin

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 24 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.76 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.04. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.04 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw).
These values were computed from 851 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win54.3%

Draw25.1%

Bnei Sakhnin to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw79.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win45.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time38.4%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 850 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 12
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 5
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.76

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.04

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.