Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 1

Maccabi Petah Tikva–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.3% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Maccabi Petah TikvaS. Owusu (assist: A. Salem)
23'Maccabi Petah TikvaM. Rakonjac (assist: S. Owusu)
79'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaAdrián Ugarriza (assist: I. Vaier)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.39 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.48. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 1.48 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win34.4%

Draw26.9%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win38.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva win or draw61.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona win65.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time40.8%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 14
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,398 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.39

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.48

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.4%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.