Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 1

Hapoel Katamon–Maccabi Tel Aviv

2–5

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Hapoel KatamonV. Damascan (assist: S. Zuberu)
24'Maccabi Tel AvivR. Revivo (assist: O. Davida)
45'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz (penalty)
63'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz (assist: H. Varela)
68'Maccabi Tel AvivS. Abu Farkhi
71'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 0.87 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.94. On the pitch: 2-5.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.7%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for Hapoel Katamon, 1.94 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 85.2% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 850 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win14.8%

Draw22.6%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win62.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw37.3%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win85.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time15.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time44.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level55.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead84.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 849 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 13
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 4
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score0.87

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.94

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.6%1–111.5%1–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.