Bundesliga · Austria · Regular Season - 2

TSV Hartberg–Sturm Graz

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

60'TSV HartbergK. Schopp · red card
69'Sturm GrazN. Weiper (assist: Simon Seidl)
81'Sturm GrazN. Weiper (assist: Simon Seidl)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSV Hartberg		Sturm Graz
6	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
2	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
334	Passes	378
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots TSV Hartberg 6 · Sturm Graz 20; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Julian Weinberger, Austria→

4.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

This match's league is not one of the leagues we publish. We do not show a prediction whose accuracy we do not track on the record here.

15	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.