1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 4

Omonia 29is Maiou–AEK Larnaca

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 18 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'AEK LarnacaN. Andereggen
41'Omonia 29is MaiouFergus Tierney
84'AEK LarnacaR. Bajic

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia 29is Maiou 1.12 · AEK Larnaca 2.01. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

Andreas Tehrany, Cyprus→

4.89

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Omonia 29is Maiou, 2.01 for AEK Larnaca.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (X2 — draw or AEK Larnaca win).
These values were computed from 866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia 29is Maiou to win19.1%

Draw22.8%

AEK Larnaca to win58.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Omonia 29is Maiou lead at half-time6.6%

Level at half-time33.7%

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time59.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia 29is Maiou ahead or level40.3%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or AEK Larnaca ahead93.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 12
AEK Larnaca: at least 11

Corners

Omonia 29is Maiou: at least 4
AEK Larnaca: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia 29is Maiou score1.12

Attack: Omonia 29is Maiou score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Larnaca score2.01

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia 29is Maiou concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.01 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–210.9%0–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.