1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 2

Pafos–Olympiakos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 2.33 · Olympiakos 0.58. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

Theodoros Sofokleous, Cyprus→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.5%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for Pafos, 0.58 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (1X — Pafos win or draw).
These values were computed from 857 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win77.5%

Draw16.0%

Olympiakos to win6.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pafos win or draw93.5%

12 — any result other than a draw84.0%

X2 — draw or Olympiakos win22.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Pafos lead at half-time57.9%

Level at half-time34.7%

Olympiakos lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Pafos ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead42.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 856 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pafos: at least 14
Olympiakos: at least 12

Corners

Pafos: at least 5
Olympiakos: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score2.33

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score0.58

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.3%1–012.0%3–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.