1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 2

Nea Salamis–AEK Larnaca

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'AEK LarnacaD. Ivanovic
34'AEK LarnacaD. Ivanovic
53'AEK LarnacaR. Bajic
59'AEK LarnacaY. Chacon
90+3'Nea SalamisS. Grandsir

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nea Salamis 0.93 · AEK Larnaca 2.27. On the pitch: 1-4.

Referee

Constantinos Fellas, Cyprus→

4.50

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.1%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Nea Salamis, 2.27 for AEK Larnaca.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (X2 — draw or AEK Larnaca win).
These values were computed from 855 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nea Salamis to win12.5%

Draw19.4%

AEK Larnaca to win68.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

Nea Salamis lead at half-time13.6%

Level at half-time36.5%

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time49.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Nea Salamis ahead or level50.1%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or AEK Larnaca ahead86.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 854 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nea Salamis: at least 12
AEK Larnaca: at least 11

Corners

Nea Salamis: at least 4
AEK Larnaca: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nea Salamis score0.93

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Larnaca score2.27

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 57% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%0–210.7%1–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.