1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 1

Olympiakos–Nea Salamis

3–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 28 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'OlympiakosM. Pechlivanis
38'Nea SalamisSamuel Grandsir
43'Nea SalamisChristos Giousis
55'Nea SalamisDarío Poveda
60'OlympiakosZ. Savva
80'OlympiakosAndreas Christou

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos 1.45 · Nea Salamis 0.90. On the pitch: 3-3.

Referee

Ioannis Piripitsis, Cyprus→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Olympiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Olympiakos, 0.90 for Nea Salamis.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Olympiakos win or draw).
These values were computed from 846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos to win49.6%

Draw28.4%

Nea Salamis to win22.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Olympiakos win or draw78.0%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Nea Salamis win50.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Olympiakos lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time41.1%

Nea Salamis lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Nea Salamis ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 845 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos: at least 13
Nea Salamis: at least 12

Corners

Olympiakos: at least 5
Nea Salamis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos score1.45

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nea Salamis score0.90

Attack: Nea Salamis score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–013.1%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.