Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 8

Silkeborg–Viborg

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jysk Park, Silkeborg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'SilkeborgL. Riisgaard (assist: V. Westh)
56'ViborgAsker Beck (assist: Sami Jalal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Silkeborg		Viborg
13	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
514	Passes	430
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Silkeborg 1.19 · Viborg 1.71. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Silkeborg 13 · Viborg 10; on target 5 and 4.

Unavailable players

Silkeborg

A. Buschout · Ankle Injury
K. Kirkegaardout · injury
M. Jonssonout · Coach's decision
M. Oxenbergout · injury
P. Rodinout · Knee Injury

Viborg

M. Riahiout · Knee Injury
T. Freriksout · Knock
Y. Njohout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Viborg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Silkeborg, 1.71 for Viborg.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (X2 — draw or Viborg win).
These values were computed from 691 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Silkeborg to win25.1%

Draw25.7%

Viborg to win49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Silkeborg lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time39.0%

Viborg lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Silkeborg ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Viborg ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 691 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Silkeborg: at least 9Actual: 5
Viborg: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Silkeborg: at least 4Actual: 4
Viborg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Silkeborg score1.19

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viborg score1.71

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.6%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.