Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 6

FC Copenhagen–Sonderjyske

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 31 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'SonderjyskeA. Munksgaard (assist: I. Seydi)
30'FC CopenhagenM. Elyounoussi
45+4'FC CopenhagenM. Madsen (assist: M. Elyounoussi)
64'FC CopenhagenM. Elyounoussi
70'SonderjyskeB. Bjarnason · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Sonderjyske
24	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
547	Passes	372
466	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 2.00 · Sonderjyske 1.05. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Copenhagen 24 · Sonderjyske 11; on target 8 and 2.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Jonas Hansen, Denmark→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.7%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for FC Copenhagen, 1.05 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 681 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win59.7%

Draw22.7%

Sonderjyske to win17.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time49.6%

Level at half-time35.4%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead50.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 681 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Copenhagen: at least 10Actual: 6
Sonderjyske: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

FC Copenhagen: at least 5Actual: 7
Sonderjyske: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.00

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.05

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–111.0%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.