Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 5

FC Midtjylland–Randers FC

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'FC MidtjyllandD. Osorio

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Randers FC
20	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
426	Passes	310
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.77 · Randers FC 1.04. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Midtjylland 20 · Randers FC 8; on target 6 and 2.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Jens Maae, Denmark→

3.33

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for FC Midtjylland, 1.04 for Randers FC.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — FC Midtjylland win or draw).
These values were computed from 671 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win54.3%

Draw25.1%

Randers FC to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	26

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time59.8%

Level at half-time31.7%

Randers FC lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Midtjylland ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time68.3%

X2 — level or Randers FC ahead40.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 671 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Midtjylland: at least 11Actual: 12
Randers FC: at least 11Actual: 26

Corners

FC Midtjylland: at least 5Actual: 10
Randers FC: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.77

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Randers FC score1.04

Attack: Randers FC score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.