Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 4

Brondby–Sonderjyske

3–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Monday, 17 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'BrondbyM. Frokjaer-Jensen (assist: Max Ejdum)
30'BrondbyM. Frokjaer-Jensen (assist: Max Ejdum)
45+1'BrondbyOlti Hyseni (assist: Oskar Fenger)
58'SonderjyskeB. Tambedou (assist: Maxime Soulas)
64'SonderjyskeMohamed Cherif Haidara (assist: Sefer Emini)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brondby		Sonderjyske
18	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
589	Passes	336
522	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brondby 1.75 · Sonderjyske 1.00. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Brondby 18 · Sonderjyske 10; on target 4 and 5.
Brondby kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Frederik Svendsen, Denmark→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.8%: “Brondby to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Brondby, 1.00 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — Brondby win or draw).
These values were computed from 669 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brondby to win54.8%

Draw25.1%

Sonderjyske to win20.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Brondby lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time42.0%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Brondby ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 669 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brondby: at least 10Actual: 9
Sonderjyske: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Brondby: at least 5Actual: 10
Sonderjyske: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brondby score1.75

Attack: Brondby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.00

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brondby concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.