Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 4

FC Nordsjaelland–Silkeborg

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'FC NordsjaellandIbrahim Adel (assist: Peter Ankersen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		Silkeborg
20	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
620	Passes	519
539	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 2.00 · Silkeborg 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 20 · Silkeborg 4; on target 7 and 0.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Sandi Putros, Denmark→

3.55

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.3%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for FC Nordsjaelland, 0.98 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — FC Nordsjaelland win or draw).
These values were computed from 665 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win61.3%

Draw22.4%

Silkeborg to win16.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time36.8%

Silkeborg lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 665 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 10Actual: 10
Silkeborg: at least 7Actual: 9

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 5Actual: 8
Silkeborg: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score2.00

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score0.98

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–111.0%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.