Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 1

Randers FC–Silkeborg

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 27 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Randers FCMike Themsen (assist: M. Sjolstad)
45+1'SilkeborgO. Ross (assist: C. McCowatt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Silkeborg
8	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
535	Passes	629
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.82 · Silkeborg 1.02. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Randers FC 8 · Silkeborg 12; on target 2 and 6.

Unavailable players

Randers FC

P. Izzoout · Transfer negotiations
W. Caddyout · injury

Silkeborg

A. Buschout · Ankle Injury
A. Poulsenout · not in squad
M. Freundlichout · Knee Injury
M. Oxenbergout · injury
P. Ganchasout · not in squad
P. Rodinout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

J. Karlsen→

3.27

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Randers FC, 1.02 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (1X — Randers FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 653 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win56.0%

Draw24.5%

Silkeborg to win19.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Randers FC lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time37.8%

Silkeborg lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 653 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 10Actual: 13
Silkeborg: at least 8Actual: 4

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 5
Silkeborg: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.82

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.02

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.