Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 6

Casa Pia–FC Porto

1–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Casa PiaH. Araujo (penalty)
45+3'FC PortoAndré Silva (assist: P. Rosario)
60'FC PortoJ. Kiwior (assist: Gabri Veiga)
66'FC PortoBorja Sainz
90+1'FC PortoS. Gimenez (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		FC Porto
15	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	12
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	10
0	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
240	Passes	409
163	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 0.59 · FC Porto 1.99. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Casa Pia 15 · FC Porto 17; on target 5 and 4.
FC Porto kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.5%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.59 for Casa Pia, 1.99 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 91.4% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 1,269 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win8.6%

Draw19.9%

FC Porto to win71.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Casa Pia lead at half-time7.0%

Level at half-time38.0%

FC Porto lead at half-time54.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level45.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or FC Porto ahead93.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1269 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 13Actual: 13
FC Porto: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 3Actual: 5
FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score0.59

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.99

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.99 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–215.7%0–114.6%0–310.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.