Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 6

Arouca–Santa Clara

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Santa ClaraGonçalo Paciência (assist: J. Tavares)
36'Santa ClaraJ. Tavares (assist: P. Pacheco)
46'AroucaBarbero (assist: N. Djouahra)
85'Santa ClaraSorriso · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		Santa Clara
10	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
517	Passes	302
453	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.13 · Santa Clara 1.31. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Arouca 10 · Santa Clara 12; on target 4 and 5.
Arouca kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “Arouca to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Arouca, 1.31 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,271 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win30.9%

Draw29.3%

Santa Clara to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Arouca lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time43.7%

Santa Clara lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1271 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 13Actual: 14
Santa Clara: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Arouca: at least 4Actual: 5
Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.13

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score1.31

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.6%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.