Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 5

Sporting CP–Nacional

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

32'Sporting CPL. Suárez (penalty)
49'Sporting CPFlávio Gonçalves (assist: L. Suárez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Nacional
19	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
660	Passes	318
586	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.60 · Nacional 0.52. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sporting CP 19 · Nacional 3; on target 8 and 2.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

J. Pinheiro→

4.55

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.0%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.60 for Sporting CP, 0.52 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 95.6% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,261 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win83.0%

Draw12.7%

Nacional to win4.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time71.5%

Level at half-time27.3%

Nacional lead at half-time1.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level98.8%

12 — not level at half-time72.7%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead28.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 10
Nacional: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 6
Nacional: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 51.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.60

Attack: Sporting CP score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score0.52

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.4%3–013.5%1–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.