Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 4

Arouca–Maritimo

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'MaritimoMartín Tejón
44'AroucaE. van Ee (assist: A. Trezza)
55'AroucaBarbero (assist: Pablo Gozálbez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		Maritimo
17	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
491	Passes	456
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.36 · Maritimo 1.39. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Arouca 17 · Maritimo 12; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Gustavo Correia, Portugal→

4.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Maritimo to win”. Second comes “Arouca to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Arouca, 1.39 for Maritimo.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,249 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win35.5%

Draw27.6%

Maritimo to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Arouca lead at half-time60.4%

Level at half-time32.9%

Maritimo lead at half-time6.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level93.3%

12 — not level at half-time67.1%

X2 — level or Maritimo ahead39.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1249 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 12Actual: 8
Maritimo: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Arouca: at least 4Actual: 2
Maritimo: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.36

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maritimo's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maritimo score1.39

Attack: Maritimo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.1%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.