Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 3

GIL Vicente–Casa Pia

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 24 August 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'GIL VicenteGil Pinto Martins (assist: Héctor Hernández)
45'GIL VicenteHéctor Hernández (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Casa Pia
8	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
519	Passes	392
458	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.73 · Casa Pia 0.79. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 8 · Casa Pia 13; on target 4 and 2.
GIL Vicente kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Anzhony Rodrigues, Portugal→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.1%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for GIL Vicente, 0.79 for Casa Pia.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,247 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win60.1%

Draw24.7%

Casa Pia to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time43.4%

Casa Pia lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Casa Pia ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1247 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 11
Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 3
Casa Pia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.73

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Casa Pia score0.79

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%1–112.5%2–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.