Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 3

FC Porto–Arouca

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'FC PortoGabri Veiga (assist: William)
86'FC PortoBorja Sainz (assist: Pepê Aquino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Arouca
23	Shots	4
10	Shots on target	1
17	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
12	Corners	2
5	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
461	Passes	414
394	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 2.19 · Arouca 0.64. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Porto 23 · Arouca 4; on target 10 and 1.

Referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal→

4.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.7%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for FC Porto, 0.64 for Arouca.
The highest double chance value is 91.8% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,246 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win73.7%

Draw18.1%

Arouca to win8.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Porto lead at half-time60.7%

Level at half-time34.3%

Arouca lead at half-time5.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level95.0%

12 — not level at half-time65.7%

X2 — level or Arouca ahead39.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1246 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 12Actual: 16
Arouca: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 12
Arouca: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score2.19

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Arouca's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arouca score0.64

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.7%1–012.2%3–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.