Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 3

Maritimo–Academico Viseu

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Academico ViseuAndre Clovis (assist: A. Correia)
45'Academico ViseuS. Messeguem
70'MaritimoPaulo Henrique
88'MaritimoAdrián Butzke (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maritimo		Academico Viseu
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
368	Passes	332
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Maritimo 11 · Academico Viseu 13; on target 4 and 7.

Referee

Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal→

6.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

15	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.