Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 2

Casa Pia–Benfica

0–7

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 17 August 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Goals and red cards

3'BenficaGianluca Prestianni
14'BenficaRafa Silva (assist: Vangelis Pavlidis)
47'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis
49'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis
54'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (assist: Leandro Barreiro)
58'BenficaL. Ofori (own goal)
61'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Benfica
3	Shots	20
0	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
36%	Possession	64%
343	Passes	620
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 0.72 · Benfica 2.12. On the pitch: 0-7.
Shots Casa Pia 3 · Benfica 20; on target 0 and 8.
Benfica kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

J. Pinheiro→

4.62

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.4%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.72 for Casa Pia, 2.12 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 1,240 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win10.1%

Draw19.6%

Benfica to win70.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Casa Pia lead at half-time9.3%

Level at half-time37.8%

Benfica lead at half-time52.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level47.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Benfica ahead90.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1240 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 15Actual: 11
Benfica: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 2Actual: 1
Benfica: at least 7Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score0.72

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score2.12

Attack: Benfica score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.6%0–111.7%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.