Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 2

Alverca–Estrela

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'EstrelaL. Antonetti (assist: Rafa Soares)
58'AlvercaIan Luccas (assist: I. James)
62'AlvercaVivaldo Semedo (assist: Rayan)
69'EstrelaA. Marcus (assist: Rafa Soares)
74'AlvercaChiquinho · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alverca		Estrela
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
330	Passes	397
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alverca 1.64 · Estrela 1.01. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Alverca 14 · Estrela 10; on target 4 and 7.

Referee

Jose Bessa, Portugal→

7.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Alverca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Alverca, 1.01 for Estrela.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Alverca win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,234 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alverca to win51.8%

Draw26.3%

Estrela to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Alverca lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time45.4%

Estrela lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Alverca ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Estrela ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1234 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alverca: at least 13Actual: 10
Estrela: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Alverca: at least 5
Estrela: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alverca score1.64

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estrela concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estrela score1.01

Attack: Estrela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–010.8%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.