Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 1

Santa Clara–Nacional

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Monday, 10 August 2026 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Santa ClaraGonçalo Paciência
21'Santa ClaraGonçalo Paciência (assist: Diogo Calila)
36'NacionalLiziero (penalty)
45'NacionalMiguel Baeza

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Nacional
19	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
389	Passes	373
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.45 · Nacional 0.89. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Santa Clara 19 · Nacional 10; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Santa Clara, 0.89 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Santa Clara win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,232 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win49.9%

Draw28.4%

Nacional to win21.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Santa Clara lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time46.8%

Nacional lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1232 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 15
Nacional: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 5Actual: 4
Nacional: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.45

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score0.89

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–013.3%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.