Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 1

FC Porto–Alverca

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto

Goals and red cards

9'FC PortoAndré Silva (penalty)
44'FC PortoGabri Veiga (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Alverca
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	9
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
397	Passes	339
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.95 · Alverca 0.64. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Porto 9 · Alverca 15; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

5.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.1%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for FC Porto, 0.64 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,228 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win69.1%

Draw20.9%

Alverca to win9.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Porto lead at half-time52.9%

Level at half-time39.9%

Alverca lead at half-time7.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level92.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead47.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1228 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 13Actual: 13
Alverca: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 7
Alverca: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.95

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score0.64

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.9%1–014.1%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.