Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 6

RAAL La Louvière–Kortrijk

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'RAAL La LouvièreM. Ubandoma (assist: A. Tajaouart)
37'RAAL La LouvièreM. Ubandoma (assist: S. Delos)
85'RAAL La LouvièreE. Filet (assist: M. Peano)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RAAL La Louvière		Kortrijk
17	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
321	Passes	524
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RAAL La Louvière 1.58 · Kortrijk 0.85. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots RAAL La Louvière 17 · Kortrijk 10; on target 6 and 2.
Kortrijk kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “RAAL La Louvière to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for RAAL La Louvière, 0.85 for Kortrijk.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (1X — RAAL La Louvière win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,179 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RAAL La Louvière to win54.3%

Draw26.9%

Kortrijk to win18.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time43.1%

Kortrijk lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — RAAL La Louvière ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Kortrijk ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1179 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RAAL La Louvière: at least 9Actual: 9
Kortrijk: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

RAAL La Louvière: at least 5
Kortrijk: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.58

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kortrijk score0.85

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–013.2%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.