Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 5

Anderlecht–Genk

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Genk
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	5
54%	Possession	46%
543	Passes	481
479	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.41 · Genk 1.53. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Anderlecht 12 · Genk 8; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

Jan Boterberg, Belgium→

3.22

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “Anderlecht to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Anderlecht, 1.53 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,169 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win33.9%

Draw26.5%

Genk to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,894 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Anderlecht win or draw60.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Genk win66.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Anderlecht lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time38.0%

Genk lead at half-time39.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level60.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Genk ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1169 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 11Actual: 11
Genk: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 5Actual: 4
Genk: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.41

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.53

Attack: Genk score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.6%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1169 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 154 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.