Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 5

Kortrijk–Zulte Waregem

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'KortrijkR. Storman · red card
90+3'Zulte WaregemH. Akpa-Chukwu (assist: A. Ementa)
90+5'Zulte WaregemZ. Atrok (assist: M. Mbaye)
90+6'KortrijkR. Kohon · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		Zulte Waregem
9	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
400	Passes	402
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 0.98 · Zulte Waregem 1.59. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Kortrijk 9 · Zulte Waregem 12; on target 3 and 5.
Zulte Waregem kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Jasper Vergoote, Belgium→

3.27

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Zulte Waregem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Kortrijk, 1.59 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (X2 — draw or Zulte Waregem win).
These values were computed from 1,168 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win21.9%

Draw26.9%

Zulte Waregem to win51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	5

2	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kortrijk lead at half-time19.0%

Level at half-time41.5%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time39.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level60.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead81.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1168 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 11Actual: 10
Zulte Waregem: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 4Actual: 6
Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score0.98

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.59

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%0–111.4%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.