Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 5

Charleroi–Union St. Gilloise

2–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Union St. GilloiseMohamed Koné (own goal)
27'CharleroiF. Mbemba (assist: K. Van Den Kerkhof)
41'CharleroiP. Pflucke (assist: J. Romsaas)
44'Union St. GilloiseA. Zorgane
49'Union St. GilloiseK. Van De Perre (assist: B. Zeneli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charleroi		Union St. Gilloise
20	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	7
16	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
479	Passes	334
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charleroi 1.03 · Union St. Gilloise 1.39. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Charleroi 20 · Union St. Gilloise 17; on target 5 and 7.
Charleroi kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.68

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Charleroi, 1.39 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (X2 — draw or Union St. Gilloise win).
These values were computed from 1,163 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charleroi to win26.6%

Draw28.9%

Union St. Gilloise to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Charleroi lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time41.3%

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time41.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Charleroi ahead or level58.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Union St. Gilloise ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1163 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charleroi: at least 9Actual: 12
Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 5
Union St. Gilloise: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charleroi score1.03

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.39

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–111.6%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.