Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 4

Kortrijk–Charleroi

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'CharleroiA. Scheidler (assist: K. Van Den Kerkhof)
41'KortrijkS. Campbell (assist: T. Ambrose)
66'CharleroiC. Keita (assist: J. Romsaas)
90'CharleroiA. Colassin (assist: A. Bojang)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		Charleroi
13	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
4	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
406	Passes	402
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 0.99 · Charleroi 1.58. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Kortrijk 13 · Charleroi 18; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

Wesli De Cremer, Belgium→

4.50

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Kortrijk, 1.58 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (X2 — draw or Charleroi win).
These values were computed from 1,152 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win22.4%

Draw27.0%

Charleroi to win50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kortrijk lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time42.5%

Charleroi lead at half-time38.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level61.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1152 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 8Actual: 13
Charleroi: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 3Actual: 6
Charleroi: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score0.99

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.58

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%0–111.3%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.