Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 19

AIK Stockholm–Hammarby FF

3–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna

Goals and red cards

14'Hammarby FFF. Adjei
15'AIK StockholmL. Carlstrand (assist: Kevin Filling)
45+4'Hammarby FFP. Abraham (assist: V. Lind)
72'AIK StockholmA. Kouame (assist: Kevin Filling)
83'AIK StockholmSixten Gustafsson (assist: L. Camara)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AIK Stockholm		Hammarby FF
11	Shots	32
6	Shots on target	12
10	Shots inside the box	24
10	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
391	Passes	510
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AIK Stockholm 1.03 · Hammarby FF 1.89. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots AIK Stockholm 11 · Hammarby FF 32; on target 6 and 12.
Hammarby FF kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

3.90

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Hammarby FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for AIK Stockholm, 1.89 for Hammarby FF.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (X2 — draw or Hammarby FF win).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AIK Stockholm to win18.9%

Draw23.8%

Hammarby FF to win57.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AIK Stockholm win or draw42.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.2%

X2 — draw or Hammarby FF win81.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

AIK Stockholm lead at half-time13.1%

Level at half-time38.1%

Hammarby FF lead at half-time48.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AIK Stockholm ahead or level51.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Hammarby FF ahead86.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AIK Stockholm: at least 12Actual: 16
Hammarby FF: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

AIK Stockholm: at least 4Actual: 1
Hammarby FF: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AIK Stockholm score1.03

Attack: AIK Stockholm score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.89

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: AIK Stockholm's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–211.0%0–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1105 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.