Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 19

BK Hacken–Vasteras SK FK

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

34'Vasteras SK FKS. Gefvert
38'Vasteras SK FKBonaventure Lendambi (assist: M. Hellisdal)
42'BK HackenLeo Väisänen · red card
61'Vasteras SK FKM. Hellisdal
78'BK HackenC. Wawa (assist: Abdoulaye Doumbia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
BK Hacken		Vasteras SK FK
16	Shots	16
8	Shots on target	8
11	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
49%	Possession	51%
500	Passes	536
425	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BK Hacken 2.00 · Vasteras SK FK 1.15. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots BK Hacken 16 · Vasteras SK FK 16; on target 8 and 8.

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

2.90

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “BK Hacken to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for BK Hacken, 1.15 for Vasteras SK FK.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (1X — BK Hacken win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,102 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BK Hacken to win57.1%

Draw23.0%

Vasteras SK FK to win19.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — BK Hacken win or draw80.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or Vasteras SK FK win42.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

BK Hacken lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time38.3%

Vasteras SK FK lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — BK Hacken ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Vasteras SK FK ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1102 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BK Hacken: at least 11Actual: 12
Vasteras SK FK: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

BK Hacken: at least 5Actual: 5
Vasteras SK FK: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BK Hacken score2.00

Attack: BK Hacken score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vasteras SK FK's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vasteras SK FK score1.15

Attack: Vasteras SK FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BK Hacken's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–110.9%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1102 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 48 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.