Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 18

Vasteras SK FK–Kalmar FF

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena, Westeros

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vasteras SK FK		Kalmar FF
9	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
445	Passes	476
376	Accurate passes	396
14

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vasteras SK FK 1.56 · Kalmar FF 1.32. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Vasteras SK FK 9 · Kalmar FF 17; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

3.95

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Vasteras SK FK to win”. Second comes “Kalmar FF to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Vasteras SK FK, 1.32 for Kalmar FF.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,097 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vasteras SK FK to win42.2%

Draw26.7%

Kalmar FF to win31.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vasteras SK FK lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time37.7%

Kalmar FF lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Vasteras SK FK ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Kalmar FF ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1097 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vasteras SK FK: at least 12Actual: 14
Kalmar FF: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Vasteras SK FK: at least 4Actual: 5
Kalmar FF: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vasteras SK FK score1.56

Attack: Vasteras SK FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kalmar FF's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kalmar FF score1.32

Attack: Kalmar FF score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vasteras SK FK's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.9%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.